JaredMilne JaredMilne:
You know how a lot of U.S. Presidents and candidates for the Presidency often serve as state governors before making a run for the White House?
Try asking George Drew (Ontario), Bob Stanfield (Nova Scotia) and Tommy Douglas (Saskatchewan) how much being a former provincial Premier helped them in their runs for Prime Minister.
How many people would even vote for Charest? I'd be shocked if he managed to get a lot of Prairie support, given that he's both a Franco-Quebecois and a more moderate Eastern Tory. Most of the accomplishments the letter describes occurred before Charest became Premier of Quebec.
He stumbled out of the gate as Premier-I spent parts of the '05 and '06 summers in Quebec, and the locals in Jonquiere and Quebec City made it clear that they were not thrilled with his performance. One of the reasons he lasted as long as he did was because his main opponents were idiots like André "New Coke" Boisclair and Pauline Marois. When Marois finally replaced him 10 years ago, it wasn't because she was a great campaigner, but because Quebecers were sick of Charest. She only won a minority that collapsed two years later after she crapped the bed with the Charter of Values, and the Liberals retook power under the underrated Philippe Couillard.
So, given his political record in la belle province, I don't think Quebecers would flock to a Charest-led Conservative party.
Charest at least has Red Tory roots, having been a Cabinet Minister under Mulroney and leader of the federal PCs after the disastrous 1993 election until he switched to provincial politics, and that had mostly to do with trying to keep this country united by weakening the PQ in Quebec.
I agree that Charest won't do well in the Prairies, but let's be honest, no moderate conservative will do well in the Prairies.
If the CPC wants to return to government, they need to dump the social conservatives to the PPC/Maverick Party, so they have a chance again. I think many prairie conservatives, especially those in urban ridings would hold their noses and vote CPC instead of PPC, because the PPC/Maverick party will never be anything more than a fringe party in Canada. At the very best, they might win a few dozen seats, killing any chance of the CPC forming government.
It would take a lot to get me to vote CPC given the hard right shift of late, but with Charest and other moderates running the show, they'd be closer to the old PCs and might have a chance at returning to government.
But if they choose Bergen or Pollivere, they're almost certainly going to lose to Trudeau again, simply because most of Canada has evolved past most of the issues the social conservatives are still up in arms about.