[BartSimpson]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

I agree Jonny. I also agree with Zip. The Chinese are on a collision course with the US and its' allies.

Eventually the Chinese are going to be provoking Japan into rearming itself and I expect the more likely war will be China v. Japan. If Obama is still in office it would not surprise me if he sits it out.

[Zipperfish]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

I agree Jonny. I also agree with Zip. The Chinese are on a collision course with the US and its' allies.

Eventually the Chinese are going to be provoking Japan into rearming itself and I expect the more likely war will be China v. Japan. If Obama is still in office it would not surprise me if he sits it out.

It's too late for Japan. Apart form being vastly outnumbered, they have no nuclear deterrant.

Oh well, at least we don't have to worry about Vancouver. If they hit this place they'll probably hity more Chinese nationals than round-eyes. ha ha ha

I think the question we should be asking ourselves now is if we will continue to finance China through our trade imbalances. We've gottwen pretty used to cheap labour. The other question we should ask ourselves is what side Russia is going to fall on. They are the lynchpin.

[BartSimpson]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

It's too late for Japan. Apart form being vastly outnumbered, they have no nuclear deterrant.

They're talking openly about rectifying that problem.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... /?page=all

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

Oh well, at least we don't have to worry about Vancouver. If they hit this place they'll probably hity more Chinese nationals than round-eyes. ha ha ha

Someone posted a story on this site years back where China had proposed that they want to have enclaves in North America and Vancouver was on that list. I'm sure they would still like to annex the place. It'd give them access to better beer.

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

I think the question we should be asking ourselves now is if we will continue to finance China through our trade imbalances. We've gottwen pretty used to cheap labour. The other question we should ask ourselves is what side Russia is going to fall on. They are the lynchpin.

Russia is on the side of Russia and they always have been.

[Zipperfish]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

They're talking openly about rectifying that problem.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... /?page=all

I can't see it at this point. They have to overcome remarkable domestic opposition. And even then, they'll be starting from Square 1. It's doubtful that China will let Japan develop nukes--think of Cuba 1963. Japan has cast their lot as a satellite of the US, and that's the role they'll have to play.

I think we're more likely to see a redux of the Cold War.

[martin14]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

They're talking openly about rectifying that problem.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... /?page=all

I can't see it at this point. They have to overcome remarkable domestic opposition. And even then, they'll be starting from Square 1. It's doubtful that China will let Japan develop nukes--think of Cuba 1963. Japan has cast their lot as a satellite of the US, and that's the role they'll have to play.

I think we're more likely to see a redux of the Cold War.

As China gets more aggressive, Japanese opposition will disappear.

They have enough weapons tech, material and enrichment facilities already
sitting on the island, they could have nukes within a year,
and not a damn thing the Chinese can do about it.

They certainly won't be pooping out new carriers that fast.

[Jonny_C]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

It's too late for Japan. Apart form being vastly outnumbered, they have no nuclear deterrant.

I don't think they need it.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... an.svg.png

$1:

I think the question we should be asking ourselves now is if we will continue to finance China through our trade imbalances. We've gottwen pretty used to cheap labour. The other question we should ask ourselves is what side Russia is going to fall on. They are the lynchpin.

Anything we can do to lessen dependence on Chinese trade I'm all in favour of. We're digging ourselves a hole here (dare I say a grave?)

I personally don't see Russia as a "lynchpin". They've got a lot to be unhappy about in China's rise too.

[Jonny_C]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Someone posted a story on this site years back where China had proposed that they want to have enclaves in North America and Vancouver was on that list. I'm sure they would still like to annex the place. It'd give them access to better beer.

I think that's about on a par with American "wargame" plans to invade Canada.

[Zipperfish]

Jonny_C Jonny_C:

I personally don't see Russia as a "lynchpin". They've got a lot to be unhappy about in China's rise too.

Russia will not go to China, in my opinion, unless the US forces them to through sheer belligerance. Putin has been making a lot of noise about a Sino-Russian alliance, but the fact is they don't like each other and never have.

[bootlegga]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Eventually the Chinese are going to be provoking Japan into rearming itself and I expect the more likely war will be China v. Japan. If Obama is still in office it would not surprise me if he sits it out.

I doubt the Chinese is willing to expend the effort necessary to go to war with Japan, especially given the strength and prowess of Japan's Self Defence Forces (Air and Sea especially), not to mention their strong commitment to BMD.

However, I agree that if Japan does really feel threatened, with their space program and nuclear power industry, they could churn out IRBMs/ICBMs topped with nukes in relatively short order. All that is necessary on that front is a perceived national need.

A far better strategy on the part of China would be to minimize Japanese influence and try to usurp them economically. Back in my university days, they called it the Canadaization of Japan, because Japan, like Canada, sits next to a behemoth that has far vaster population, a stronger manufacturing base, etc.

[Zipperfish]

bootlegga bootlegga:

I doubt the Chinese is willing to expend the effort necessary to go to war with Japan, especially given the strength and prowess of Japan's Self Defence Forces (Air and Sea especially), not to mention their strong commitment to BMD.

However, I agree that if Japan does really feel threatened, with their space program and nuclear power industry, they could churn out IRBMs/ICBMs topped with nukes in relatively short order. All that is necessary on that front is a perceived national need.

A far better strategy on the part of China would be to minimize Japanese influence and try to usurp them economically. Back in my university days, they called it the Canadaization of Japan, because Japan, like Canada, sits next to a behemoth that has far vaster population, a stronger manufacturing base, etc.

Good points by all. It appears as though, as the Chinese say, we will live in interesting times.

[Jonny_C]

The China/Japan tension at the moment over those islands is disquieting, but I just can't see China risking a war with Japan.

I'm assuming the Chinese wouldn't want to put their economic growth in jeopardy for a few chunks of rock. A war with Japan would automatically put the Western nations in Japan's camp and give them a wake-up call from trusting Chinese trade too much.

It's one thing to do business with China and ignore that its internal policies are still draconian and communist, but quite another to do business with a China that's a naked international aggressor against a friendly nation.

[BartSimpson]

bootlegga bootlegga:

However, I agree that if Japan does really feel threatened, with their space program and nuclear power industry, they could churn out IRBMs/ICBMs topped with nukes in relatively short order. All that is necessary on that front is a perceived national need.

Japan's PM (whoever it was at the time) said a couple years ago that Japan could have nuclear weapons within six months if it wanted to have them.

For those who understand both the nuances of Japanese culture and the finer points of producing nuclear weapons this was an oblique way for Japan to say that it already has such weapons.

See, it takes far longer than six months to go ding-to-dong producing a nuclear weapon so that the PM set a patently impossible and immediate time frame for such a thing translated to the obvious conclusion that Japan must have this capability already.

The 'six month' thing then means that the Japanese plan on putting on a show of producing nukes for six months to make it look like they were not lying, that way they save face.

[BartSimpson]

Jonny_C Jonny_C:

The China/Japan tension at the moment over those islands is disquieting, but I just can't see China risking a war with Japan.

I can see China risking a war for a myriad of reasons. Here are a few and not in any particular order:

* Sheer arrogance. A commodity that is not in short supply in China these days.

* They'll risk war with Japan over the Senaku Islands in the hopes that the Japanese will cede the islands instead of going to war over them. High stakes poker at the global level.

* Intelligence failures. The Chinese will overestimate their capabilities and underestimate Japan's. Wrongfully assuming that Japan is weak in some fashion could lead China to do some things it otherwise would not dare.

* Intimidating Japan and winning with the Senkaku Islands will scare Vietnam, Phillipines, Brunei, Indonesia, and etc. in giving in to Chinese demands in the South China Sea.

* Because risking a war to secure resources relatively close to China will serve as an object lesson to Canada, Norway, and Denmark as China pursues their territorial claims in the Arctic. Consequently I see the issue of the Senkaku Islands as the first battle for the Arctic.

[BartSimpson]

The USA now is getting involved in the Senkaku Islands issue and taking Japan's side in it, too.

http://nation.time.com/2012/09/30/big-u ... -what-for/

[Gunnair]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

The USA now is getting involved in the Senkaku Islands issue and taking Japan's side in it, too.

http://nation.time.com/2012/09/30/big-u ... -what-for/

That's a relief. Hopefully they do better against the Chinese than the Jihadis.

Edit - I need an iPhone 5 with that bigger screen!